Museveni Wins Uganda’s 2026 Election as Millions of Voters Stay Away
Low turnout, opposition losses and voter disengagement shape the real story of Uganda’s latest presidential poll
By mid-afternoon on January 15, polling stations across Uganda had grown quiet. In some areas, queues never formed at all. Stations that once buzzed with voters stood largely empty, underscoring a defining feature of the country’s 2026 presidential election: widespread voter absence.
For many Ugandans, the choice was no longer about whom to vote for, but whether voting still mattered.
When results were announced later that night, they revealed two parallel realities. President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni had secured another decisive electoral victory. At the same time, nearly half of registered voters had stayed away from the polls, highlighting deepening questions about participation, trust and democratic engagement in Uganda.
Familiar Victory, Unfamiliar Turnout
According to the Electoral Commission, Museveni won 7,946,772 votes, representing 71.65 per cent of the total cast. His closest challenger, National Unity Platform leader Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu—popularly known as Bobi Wine—received 2,741,238 votes, or 24.72 per cent.
Nathan Nandala Mafabi of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) finished third with just under two per cent.
Voter turnout stood at approximately 52.5 per cent. Of the 21,649,067 registered voters, only about 11.36 million cast ballots, meaning nearly one in two eligible voters did not participate.
On paper, the result marked a resurgence for Museveni. His vote share rebounded sharply from the 2021 election, when he won with 58.64 per cent—his weakest showing since 2006. In 2026, he came close to the commanding margins of his early presidency.
Yet beneath the headline numbers, the election told a more complex story.
Forty Years of Electoral Dominance
Uganda’s modern electoral era began in 1996 with its first direct presidential election under the 1995 Constitution. Museveni, then widely viewed as a reformer who had restored stability after years of conflict, won with 74 per cent of the vote. Turnout exceeded 72 per cent, reflecting strong public engagement.
The political landscape shifted in 2001, when Kizza Besigye emerged as a serious challenger. Although Museveni retained power, Uganda entered a period of sustained opposition marked by court challenges, protests and growing political polarisation.
The removal of presidential term limits in 2005 proved pivotal. The 2006 election was Museveni’s most competitive at the time, with his share falling below 60 per cent as Besigye gained ground, particularly among urban and younger voters.
Museveni recovered electorally in 2011 and 2016, even as frustrations over governance, corruption and economic conditions intensified. By then, opposition politics had become defined by confrontation and fatigue, as repeated arrests and failed legal challenges eroded momentum.
The Youth Surge That Faded
The 2021 election appeared to break that pattern. Bobi Wine, a musician-turned-politician, mobilised young voters and first-time participants on an unprecedented scale. Although Museveni won, Bobi Wine captured nearly 35 per cent of the vote, signalling a potential generational shift.
That momentum did not carry into 2026.
Bobi Wine’s vote share dropped by roughly ten percentage points, and his total votes fell by nearly one million. Turnout declined despite the absence of COVID-19 restrictions that had constrained the 2021 poll.
Opposition supporters cite several reasons. Some describe abstention as a form of protest, reflecting deep scepticism about the electoral process. Others point to fear, political exhaustion, or disengagement after years of high-stakes contests that produced little change.
The shutdown of the internet and social media platforms around the vote also played a role. Digital platforms had been central to opposition mobilisation and election monitoring in previous cycles. Their absence limited outreach, particularly among younger voters.
Power Consolidated, Participation Reduced
Museveni’s renewed dominance can be interpreted in different ways. Supporters argue it reflects confidence in experienced leadership amid economic uncertainty and regional instability. Critics say it highlights the advantages of incumbency, including security deployments and restrictions on opposition activity.
What is clear is that electoral dominance now rests on a narrower base of participation.
Winning more than 70 per cent of the vote carries less weight when nearly half the electorate does not take part. The mandate is broad on paper, but thinner in practice.
What the 2026 Election Reveals
Uganda has now held seven presidential elections since 1996, all won by the same leader. The continuity at the top contrasts with growing disengagement below.
The 2026 election did not resolve Uganda’s political tensions; it clarified them. Museveni remains firmly in control, having outlasted successive generations of challengers. The opposition continues to regroup but struggles to convert moments of enthusiasm into sustained gains.
For voters—especially the young—the choice increasingly lies between frustration and apathy. Elections continue to be held, ballots counted, and winners declared. The unresolved question is whether future polls can still inspire belief that participation leads to change.
That answer will not be found in percentages alone, but in who turns out next time—and who decides not to.
